Aug/100
Future Book Betting Pitfalls And How To Avoid Them
Sports book futures bets are an increasing popular and potentially profitable way to wager on the outcome of a full season. There's a few common mistakes that novice players make that can be easily avoided by paying attention to the following:
You gotta shop around: More specifically, you have to 'shop points' just as you would with a straight bet. This is crucial in all forms of sports betting but particularly key with futures wagers. There are often greater variances in the prices from book to book on future plays than any other type of wagering proposition. The reason for this is simple--most books are less concern with what the 'other guys' are doing as they are with keeping their own position 'in balance'. All in all, the sports betting marketplace just doesn't react as quickly to changing futures prices as it does to individual game lines.
Don't try to pick the winner in a competitive marketplace: This may sound sort of counter intuitive since the general idea of betting on futures is to determine the actual winner but it's really not. Like everything else, its essential to always be mindful of the value you're getting. In a futures market with several legitimate contenders at the top the price offered is seldom high enough to properly compensate for the risk you're assuming. Here's an example: in a hypothetical NCAA hoops tournament Duke is +200 to win the national championship. They've certainly got a shot, but at a payback of only 2/1 its hard to justify a wager at this point with the potential for so many interceding events that can make a championship more problematic. Such events as injuries, a tough tournament draw or even just going into a slump at the wrong time can happen to any team but when you bet a higher priced team--a 'dark horse mid major at 15/1 for example--you're getting "compensation" for assuming the "risks" of betting on a proposition with so many unknown variables.
To put this in more theoretical terms, the "true odds" of Duke winning the NCAA Championship are almost certainly higher than the price we're getting. Obviously, determining the "true odds", or actual probability of a future event is an inexact science but think of it this way: if the NCAA tournament was played 100 times would Duke wind up winning 50 of those? Given the number of other good teams and the propensity for upsets along the way, its doubtful. For the sake of argument, lets say that Duke has a 33% chance to win the tournament. That means that I wouldn't consider a bet on Duke to be a good value unless I was getting a price that a) accurately reflected the true probability of their winning and b) gave me some compensation for assuming the "risk of the unknown" inherent in taking the position so far in advance. At +500 I might be interested, but at +200 the value just isn't there.
In a less competitive field, there can be instances where even a big favorite is a good value. For example, lets say a book was to take action on a bikini contest between a Victoria's Secret supermodel and three members of the Pittsburgh Penguins. The model would essentially be a 100% probability to win the contest, meaning that even a high chalk price would be a good value. Risking a lot of money to win a little is a tough thing to justify, however, even if the math makes sense.
Don't go for the big killing: Sports wagering is not a good arena in which to make a 'big killing'. It may happen from time to time, but it is extremely rare. A perennial doormat can come out of nowhere to win a championship at a big price, but the fact that it happens from time to time doesn't make it a good value. If you're a recreational player and want to throw a few dollars at a big long shot, no real harm. If you aspire to any degree of seriousness as a sports better, however, you need to maintain your discipline and commitment to value at all times. If you want to hit a big jackpot play the lottery or the slot machines, but don't try to do it in a sports betting paradigm.
Simply stated, the concept of value works the same at the bottom of the wagering ladder as it does at the top. Even if you're betting a big underdog at a huge price make sure that it accurately reflects the 'true odds' of the event occurring.
Don't bet one sided props: Sometimes sports books will offer silly bets just to get publicity or in some cases just to be funny. While there may be life on other planets, the 'true odds' of a Martian being named to President Obama's cabinet wouldn't justify a +5000 line that it would occur.
Ross Everett is a well known freelance writer who covers travel, casino gambling and sports handicapping. He is a consulting handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is responsible for providing daily free sports picks. In his spare time he enjoys fine dining, falconry and scuba diving. He lives in Las Vegas with four dogs and a pet coyote.
Jun/100
The Basics Of NFL Totals
For the NFL handicapper, understanding the methodology behind NFL totals (also called over/under numbers) is also a crucial component of his wagering arsenal. For those not familiar with NFL totals, its the large number you'll see accompanying most pointspread betting propositions. For example, the 2009 Superbowl line opened with Pittsburgh a 6 point favorite over Arizona. The total was set at 47. Simply stated, the total allows the better to decide whether the combined score between the two teams will go OVER or UNDER. In the case of the aforementioned Superbowl, Pittsburgh won by a final score of 27-23 meaning that bettors who backed the OVER cashed their tickets.
To the uninitiated, betting on NFL totals can seem very arbitrary. In reality, they're a valued tool of serious sports handicappers. Many are of the opinion that its easier to accurately foretell the *type* of game that will transpire between two teams rather than who will actually win and by how much. A successful handicapper can look for situations where the total itself is off as well as more subjective factors (weather, injury or matchups) that can contribute to the scoring output or lack thereof.
To set the NFL total, a bookmaker looks at the offensive and defensive scoring statistics for the two teams and calculates a number based on points allowed and points scored. If one team had scored 275 points and allowed 350 in their previous sixteen games that's a total of 625. Divided by 16 and that's an average of just over 39 points per game. If their opponent had scored 285 and allowed 400 (685) over 16 games that translates to just under 43 points per game. Add the two numbers together, divide by two and you've got a base total of 40.5.
At this point other factors are considered such as the significance of key numbers like 3 and 7 on final scores, weather conditions, injuries, playing surface, etc. Another component that is important is the qualitative matchup between the offense and defense of each team"meaning that a team like the Baltimore Ravens with a strong defense will be more likely to impose their will on a team resulting in a lower final score. All of these factors weigh into a final NFL total that is posted for betting.
Of course as in the case of the NFL pointspread, public perception is a crucial component of the linesmaking process. For example, the conventional wisdom is that bad weather like rain, snow, or sleet results in lower scores and for that reason a bookmaker will shade the total accordingly. However, its not quite that simple--some handicappers would maintain that sloppy weather can produce higher scores in certain situations as defensive backs aren't able to cut as well and react to the man their covering. Furthermore, turnovers are in theory more likely in inclement weather.
In conclusion, NFL totals are a very good opportunity for an astute handicapper to take advantage of a situational matchup to find good wagering value. Like most elements of the sports handicapping discipline, its not easy to stay a step ahead of the bookmakers who have access to the same weather and injury--and have factored it into the number--but is a very entertaining and potentially rewarding challenge.
Ross Everett is a widely published widely published freelance sports writer and respected authority on soccer betting. His writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sports news and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.
Mar/100
Get Through Las Vegas Without Losing An Arm And A Leg
Coming to the gambling Mecca in Nevada need not to be ridiculously financially crippling for any individual. At least for the smart ones who pick out to stay away from the practices in Las Vegas which could cost them one hundred dollars per beverage. I have heard much of things from friends who've visited Las Vegas and they all have just one thing to say in unison. It costs an arm and a leg for one to get through a single night in Vegas so what more for persons who practically live there.
Well for one, I am pretty sure folks who live in Vegas know simply by now how to get about every single night of drinking, gambling and partying without having to empty your pocket and bank accounts clean. If you'd only learn to take it from the ones who know it better than the gamblers all over Las Vegas, you'd survive for over a week and still come back completely.
First thing you must keep in mind is to try to avoid super fancy hotels with all that blinking and blinding lights all over it. They charge so much as if you are paying for their monthly electricity bill on your 3-night stay all together. The rates they bill customers still does not include the tips that just about every bellboy, room service attendant and housekeeping personnel usually are expecting to get from you for doing a superb job bringing your bottle of water for you or for dangling your coat and hat by the rack. Isn't that something?
Quite often I think I could get rich just by simply getting a job taking coats and hats to the rack in Vegas. You can find really low-priced and affordable hotels at least a mile away from the blinking hotels and it could cost as less as $60 per night. I do not think the dancers even hang there since they think it's such a terrible place to be in. But not for visitors who want to save on cash and wouldn't mind a not so big room to stay in for the night.
The next thing to remember is to not take the taxi cab. Your room is not really that far away from the strip of casinos and hotels so it would be better to walk going to the clubs. I'm sure that when you get there, you shall be sitting the whole time. And aside from that, taxi cabs in Las Vegas don't charge by mileage but by time. The lengthier you stay within the cab, the more your bill is. So try to avoid cabs if you would like to save funds.
Ultimately, one of the most excellent ideas I may give you based on my personal experience is to grab as much food as you could from the buffet table in the place where you will be staying. Typically, rooms and hotels, no matter how competitive they happen to be, will have a very good breakfast, lunch or dinner buffet table that you will eat from. Keep your stomach full with apples, cookies, brownie bars, bread and other dry food that you may slip into your bag to keep you going for a few hours. I have seen much of men and women do this so you're not alone.
Just follow these tricks and you will definitely make it in Vegas.
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Dec/090
Many Canadians Have Embraced The Benefits Of Casinos
Surprisingly, there are casinos in Canada. This is hardly a development envisaged by her earliest settlers. It is a recent phenomenon, and would represent a departure from the straight and narrow to those who originally moved to Canada from Europe.
The First Nations of Canada have a strong gambling tradition. When the early frontiersmen arrived from France, they brought their own love of games of chance with them. For this reason, there is a common Canadian notion that French people are responsible for gambling in Canada. But when the British arrived and started gaining power, they quickly vetoed all gambling activity in Canada. From the year eighteen ninety two gambling was banned by law. In nineteen sixty nine the law was changed to allow gambling under strictly controlled circumstances Individual Provinces regulated the new, stringent conditions.
Winnipeg, Manitoba was the place to win the much sought after permission to build Canada's first casino in nineteen eighty nine. Until nineteen ninety three, any Canadian with a lucky streak and a wish to get into a Canadian casino had only the Winnipeg option. Quebec and Ontario managed to get things moving on their end of the country in nineteen ninety four. This seemed to be a critical event. Slowly casinos began appearing all across Canada. However, this was not universally apparent. To this day there are several non -gambling provinces in Canada.
The three Maritime Provinces of New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador are the lone hold-outs against Canadian casino activity. This is the result of many factors, political, religious and economic.
There were sixty nine casinos in Canada as of August 2009. Casinos are the most powerful force driving Canadian tourism. Tourists expect certain standards and Canada strives to provide as exciting a casino experience as may be found anywhere.
With our economic system in such a fragile state, it is no wonder that more people today consider casino ventures than at any previous time in Canada. But there is a strong concern among Canadians about the proven social ill effects of an increased chance to gamble. But despite this, nothing will stop the powerful casino lobby any time in the near future. Canadians know that the social evils of casinos are balanced with the economic growth they foster.
Going to a casino is a visible public act. As such it is abhorrent to about half of Canada's citizens. They prefer to buy lottery tickets, which can be done fairly privately. However, twenty out of 1oo Canadians are proud casino patrons. They have shaken off the negative views of their countrymen. Their attitude will ensure the growth of the casino business in Canada. Casino players of the future will be able to visit the entire country and find well run, attractive casinos. The real history of casinos in Canada is yet to be written. The Canadians will turn their attention to the future where the benefits of casinos will help ease many problems. They have already learned to ignore outdated prejudices This is just the beginning!.
Now that the tide has begun to turn for casinos in Canada, there is no chance of its turning back. That is a sure bet! The stern-faced men who saw the need to dictate abstention from gambling in Canada's early days still whisper in Canadian ears that gambling is evil. It will be many years before those voices fade away.
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Nov/090
An Introduction To Horse Race Betting
One of the reasons that the popularity of sports gambling has skyrocketed in recent years is its accessibility. It's easy to bet on most major sports because everyone understands the basics, which teams are good and why they win. Horse handicapping, on the other hand, is a completely different and somewhat arcane discipline. Where there are some shared concepts, success at sports betting doesn't guarantee the same playing the ponies. Legendary sports handicapper Jimmy 'The Greek' Snyder was famous for killing the books with his sports plays--and giving it all back with his inept horse bets.
Below are some very basic concepts that you need to know to enjoy a day at the horse track. This information doesn't even scratch the surface of what you'll need to know if your goal is to become a serious horse betting devotee. If that is the case, you're best advised to check out one of the many theoretical books devoted to the subject.
Do your reading: When you arrive at the horse track you should purchase a copy of the Daily Racing Form (DRF for short) and the track program. The DRF is basically the 'bible' of horse race handicapping, and offers morning line odds, horse, trainer, jockey statistics and information on each race at every major track across the country. The track program offers similar information for that individual venue, often in more 'user friendly' form.
You're not playing against the house: One thing to keep in mind when playing the horses that is drastically different from sports betting is that you're not playing against 'the house', you're playing against other betters. The track just accepts and pays bets, taking out a cut (called the 'takeout') for their services. The track odds are determined by the money bet on each horse. Long odds on a horse doesn't necessarily indicate a 'bad horse' but just one that for whatever reason isn't attracting bettor interest.
So where do odds in the newspaper or program originate? These are known as the 'morning odds' or 'morning line' and is basically an educated guess as to where the betting will go. They can be helpful as a handicapping tool, but may or may not reflect what will happen in the actual betting.
Horse handicapping basics: This is where horse racing gets complex--there are countless theories about how to handicap a horse race. Some handicappers consider the breeding lineage of the horse, while others are more concerned with past performance. Still others put more weight on the training a horse has received, or its workout performance.
Once a handicapper gets an idea what will happen in the race, he has to factor the available odds into the proposition. A favorite may be an unattractive wagering prospect due to a prohibitively high price, while a long shot may be a good wagering value based on a high potential payback. It all boils down to wagering value, which is simply a matter of doing a math. Teaching the youth of America solid math skills is crucial for no other reason than to help them gamble effectively and profitably.
Training and bloodlines: Handicappers often focus on a horse's breeding lineage, considering the quality of the bloodlines and the racing pedigree of his parents and grandparents. Others put great focus on a horse's trainers. An 'A-list' trainer can often get the most out of a horse much in the same way an elite level NFL coach can cause a team to 'over perform'.
The horse's jockey: Jockeys are free agents, meaning that they get paid on their performance. In theory, this means that they'll do their utmost to win in every given race. While there are a few exceptions, many serious horse handicappers downplay the importance of the jockey. Assuming the horse's 'mount' is competent, there are much more salient factors to consider when handicapping a race than the jockey.
Find your own style, and maintain discipline: Basically, there's not a 'right' or 'wrong' way to handicap a horse race. Figure out what works for you, and develop and refine your own methodology. As in any form of gambling, don't bet more than you can afford to lose and in particular when you're starting out there's no reason to be making big wagers. If you want to learn more, there's a number of good internet resources including the Daily Racing Form website.
Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer who has written on sports gambling and how to successfully bet on NFL football. He has appeared on TV and radio talking about boxing, mixed martial arts and NFL pointspreads. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and a lynx.
Aug/090
The History Of Reno’s Mapes Hotel
On January 31, 2000, the historic Mapes Hotel in Reno was imploded by 75 pounds of explosives tucked into the art-deco structures support columns. The destruction of the Mapes put an end to years of efforts to preserve the building via lawsuits, redevelopment proposals, and grass roots action. The National Trust for Historic Preservation took up the cause of the Mapes, and challenged the destruction in a suit that eventually reached the Nevada Supreme Court.
While the efficacy and justification of demolishing the Mapes is debatable, one thing that is not is the glorious history of the hotel. It was built in 1947, and signaled the start of the modern era of casino gambling. Despite the notoriety of Bugsy Siegel and the Flamingo in Las Vegas, it was the Mapes that became the first building in the nation to have a hotel, casino and live entertainment under one roof. It also became the hotel of choice for celebrities staying in Northern Nevada. Clark Gable and Marilyn Monroe stayed at The Mapes during the filming of 'The Misfits'. Joseph McCarthy, America's famed anti-Communist crusader, admitted to a reporter over cocktails in the Mapes Lounge that he really didn't have a list of Communists in the US despite his frequent and vitriolic insistence to the contrary.
In the 50s and 60s it became, along with Lake Tahoes Cal-Neva Lodge the place to be seen in Northern Nevada. The top floor, window-walled Sky Room showcased performances by the legends: Frank Sinatra, Dean Martin, Jackie Gleason, Louis Prima, Mae West, Milton Berle, Sammy Davis, Jr., and the Marx Brothers among others. Subsequent years were not kind to downtown Reno but the Mapes continued to do well during the 60's and 70's. The hotel finally closed in 1982, due more to financial difficulties experienced by the Mapes family caused by one of their other Northern Nevada gaming properties than anything else.
Reno never experienced the massive growth that occurred in Las Vegas and southern Nevada, and for that reason the destruction of the Mapes is more open to debate than the hotel demolitions to the south. Even the demolition of The Sands"perhaps the most historically significant casino in the state"is hard to argue against given the inability of such a small property to compete in the current Las Vegas marketplace and in light of the value of the mid-strip real estate. The old properties may have historic value to pop culture historians, but their survival doesn't make economic sense. They're simply 'analog players in a digital world'.
This is not the case in Reno, where land and buildings for development in virtually every casino area are abundant. The city argued that the land on which the Mapes stood was necessary for their redevelopment efforts--a somewhat absurd position given the realities of downtown Reno and the lack of any real development on the property since the demolition. Despite receiving a number of viable concepts for the Mapes Building, the City Redevelopment Authority rejected all of them and the Mapes was destined for demolition.
The role of the City Redevelopment Authority was questioned throughout the process. Overlooking the Truckee River, the hotel was on a prime location between the downtown casino area and the riverfront district. Back in 1996, the city of Reno purchased the hotel and began entertaining proposals for renovation and redevelopment. A number of sound financial proposals were presented that would preserve the integrity of the structure including condominiums, office space, and perhaps most viable, upscale senior apartments. Oddly, all of these proposals were turned down by the citys Redevelopment Agency which eventually led to the demolition of the structure.
Following the 2000 demolition, the lot remained vacant for over a year until a temporary ice skating rink was hastily constructed the following winter. The site now houses a permanent ice skating rink which, while not a bad use for the land, isn't the sort of game changing improvement suggested by the City Redevelopment Agency and their adamant insistence that the building be demolished. To the contrary, it appears they had no specific plan or even general idea of what to do with the land but for some reason wanted to see the hotel come down. This has led to all manner of speculation, ranging from financial self interest to a rumor that the structure was 'haunted' and needed to be destroyed to forestall future paranormal activity in Washoe County. Whatever the reason, the city of Reno lost a valuable landmark that played a significant part in the economic growth of the entire state.